The world is becoming more complex and interlinked due to globalization and the advancements of technologies. Moreover, ecological degradation, conflicts, persistent poverty and hunger are all signs of an increasingly unstable world. The inter-linkages between socio-economic and ecological systems are strong, and the two depend on one another. Economic systems are built upon and shape social networks, and social networks often depend on the features of the ecosystem in which they exist. Moreover, social and economic variables, interacting with each other, may shape the ecological system in which they are “embedded,” and vice-versa (e.g., the food crisis being experienced today throughout the world might be an example of the interconnectedness of a socio-economic system with an ecological system; the rural communities in the developing world also display a high degree of interconnectedness between their socio-economic systems and the ecological systems in which they are embedded). 

In this context, “linear thinking” has proven ineffective. New practical approaches to assess the capabilities of societies to adapt and transform themselves in continually changing environments need to be undertaken. In order to explain the escalating complexity and interrelations, the concept of ecological resilience first introduced by C.S. Holling has been expanded by scholars of different disciplines to combine ecological and social systems. 

Its study, embracing the methods and tools of the so-called “science of complexity,” can prove of paramount importance in the understanding of a system’s behavior. The concept of resilience, in fact, is based on non-equilibrium dynamics and is crucial for the comprehension of weaknesses, strength and recovery capacity of a given site (e.g., the recovery of the tourism industry after the Asian Tsunami, the recovery of the economy after 9/11, the impacts of intensive agriculture on water sources, the impacts of energy on the economy). 

However, the complexities and the interrelations occurring in an SES call for a definition of a different (new), formalized theoretical framework. To serve this purpose best, the tools and the definitions provided by the study of networks should be integrated in resilience thinking. The possibility of representing complex systems with a network of nodes attached by edges permits an understanding of the “network resilience” erosion of the various systems at various times, and space scale may help to explain which actions should be undertaken in order to “plan” and “adapt” in a sustainable way.  

In order to understand social-ecological systems from a network perspective, Jacopo has turned to agent based modeling so as to be able to explore the space and time dimension of a system. Collaborating with Kenny Salau, Marco Janssen, Michael Schoon and Orjan Bodin, he has built a model that simulates predator-prey interaction on a given landscape formed by different patches that are linked (or not) to each other. This first step enabled him to assess the importance of connectivity between different patches in relation to coexistence probabilities and the non-trivial relationship between connectivity and maximum prey numbers.  

The second part of the project, currently underway, builds upon the first model. This time the group led by Jacopo is planning to introduce a manager able to act upon a landscape by reducing/increasing the cost of movement of predators and prey, thus looking at how management decisions can affect predator-prey dynamics and the connectivity between different patches. 

The third step of the project is still under discussion. One possibility is that the group develops the management part by looking at how different managers manage different patches, thus focusing on the "manager network," the coordination of actions and information spreading and sharing.  

In both the second and third parts the group led by Jacopo is planning to add disturbances that might result in destroying linkages, in reducing species populations and/or in reducing the capacity of a patch to sustain prey and consequently predators, so as to assess the resilience of different “network structures” under different disturbances.

Insights into these studies are expected to contribute to the increasing number of network-based studies in conservation. Connecting different patches may increase the flexibility of a population to adapt to changes, but giving predators a larger radius is not necessary good for the prey population. The expectation is that the studies will give us more knowledge about what types of network structures stimulate different kinds of conservation policies. Furthermore, the hope is to derive a better understanding of how a network-based policy can increase the adaptive capacity of an SES.